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Northern Powergrid Future Energy Scenarios 2026 · Graphs
Distribution Future Energy Scenarios · 2026

Graphs & charts

Twelve supplemental graphs underpinning the DFES 2026 interactive map. Every chart can be downloaded as a scalable vector and the underlying data exported as CSV.

Section 01

Low carbon technologies

6 graphs · downloadable as SVG and CSV

Figure 1

Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)

Figure 1: Electric vehicle uptake forecast (#)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement176310843703594786668
Hydrogen Evolution176310843703545046713
Holistic Transition176310843703344526607
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Number 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 243416 2025/26: 402877 2026/27: 615144 2027/28: 861899 2028/29: 1131882 2029/30: 1419619 2030/31: 1763108 2031/32: 2093501 2032/33: 2414393 2033/34: 2722447 2034/35: 3014914 2035/36: 3288226 2036/37: 3548124 2037/38: 3787298 2038/39: 4005023 2039/40: 4198205 2040/41: 4370359 2041/42: 4462320 2042/43: 4538546 2043/44: 4601669 2044/45: 4653814 2045/46: 4695811 2046/47: 4724651 2047/48: 4748577 2048/49: 4768722 2049/50: 4786668 Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 243416 2025/26: 402877 2026/27: 615144 2027/28: 861899 2028/29: 1131882 2029/30: 1419619 2030/31: 1763108 2031/32: 2093501 2032/33: 2414393 2033/34: 2722447 2034/35: 3014914 2035/36: 3288224 2036/37: 3548120 2037/38: 3787294 2038/39: 4005019 2039/40: 4198199 2040/41: 4370354 2041/42: 4512027 2042/43: 4631624 2043/44: 4732569 2044/45: 4817570 2045/46: 4887632 2046/47: 4938430 2047/48: 4980784 2048/49: 5016144 2049/50: 5046713 Holistic Transition 2024/25: 243416 2025/26: 402877 2026/27: 615144 2027/28: 861899 2028/29: 1131882 2029/30: 1419619 2030/31: 1763108 2031/32: 2093501 2032/33: 2414393 2033/34: 2722447 2034/35: 3014914 2035/36: 3288220 2036/37: 3548112 2037/38: 3787284 2038/39: 4005008 2039/40: 4198184 2040/41: 4370334 2041/42: 4412582 2042/43: 4445430 2043/44: 4470740 2044/45: 4490031 2045/46: 4503953 2046/47: 4510847 2047/48: 4516361 2048/49: 4521282 2049/50: 4526607
download SVG download CSV
Figure 2

Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)

Figure 2: Electric vehicle penetration of total car stock (%)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Holistic Transition38.588.298.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 EVs (%) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Holistic Transition 2024/25: 5.5% 2025/26: 9.1% 2026/27: 13.9% 2027/28: 19.3% 2028/29: 25.1% 2029/30: 31.3% 2030/31: 38.5% 2031/32: 45.4% 2032/33: 51.9% 2033/34: 57.9% 2034/35: 63.6% 2035/36: 68.9% 2036/37: 73.7% 2037/38: 78% 2038/39: 81.9% 2039/40: 85.3% 2040/41: 88.2% 2041/42: 90.2% 2042/43: 91.9% 2043/44: 93.4% 2044/45: 94.7% 2045/46: 95.9% 2046/47: 96.6% 2047/48: 97.3% 2048/49: 98% 2049/50: 98.6%
download SVG download CSV
Figure 3

Total number of heat pumps residential and commercial (#)

Figure 3: Total number of heat pumps residential and commercial (#)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement28135819038813006356
Hydrogen Evolution28201714451362052678
Holistic Transition28226820287253246143
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 Number 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 41090 2025/26: 67918 2026/27: 95446 2027/28: 136844 2028/29: 181760 2029/30: 221616 2030/31: 281358 2031/32: 396114 2032/33: 535518 2033/34: 700523 2034/35: 874483 2035/36: 1034910 2036/37: 1202726 2037/38: 1374789 2038/39: 1550172 2039/40: 1727544 2040/41: 1903881 2041/42: 2060637 2042/43: 2220218 2043/44: 2366877 2044/45: 2505193 2045/46: 2627557 2046/47: 2736259 2047/48: 2835864 2048/49: 2922621 2049/50: 3006356 Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 41090 2025/26: 67585 2026/27: 94744 2027/28: 135187 2028/29: 180307 2029/30: 221808 2030/31: 282017 2031/32: 396873 2032/33: 536149 2033/34: 701133 2034/35: 874982 2035/36: 1003322 2036/37: 1109375 2037/38: 1204469 2038/39: 1292135 2039/40: 1372957 2040/41: 1445136 2041/42: 1537061 2042/43: 1627116 2043/44: 1710974 2044/45: 1787854 2045/46: 1852846 2046/47: 1913814 2047/48: 1968096 2048/49: 2014578 2049/50: 2052678 Holistic Transition 2024/25: 41090 2025/26: 67918 2026/27: 95446 2027/28: 136844 2028/29: 181760 2029/30: 221935 2030/31: 282268 2031/32: 397253 2032/33: 537003 2033/34: 702286 2034/35: 876523 2035/36: 1055462 2036/37: 1245757 2037/38: 1440722 2038/39: 1638084 2039/40: 1835137 2040/41: 2028725 2041/42: 2199852 2042/43: 2380243 2043/44: 2544411 2044/45: 2699063 2045/46: 2840712 2046/47: 2962462 2047/48: 3070046 2048/49: 3160636 2049/50: 3246143
download SVG download CSV
Figure 4

Battery storage capacity installed (GW)

Figure 4: Battery storage capacity installed (GW)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement1.7866.5696.984
Hydrogen Evolution1.7656.3736.393
Holistic Transition1.7866.6047.108
0 2 4 6 Installed capacity (GW) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 0.795 GW 2025/26: 0.948 GW 2026/27: 1.094 GW 2027/28: 1.485 GW 2028/29: 1.646 GW 2029/30: 1.769 GW 2030/31: 1.786 GW 2031/32: 2.710 GW 2032/33: 3.637 GW 2033/34: 4.566 GW 2034/35: 5.497 GW 2035/36: 6.425 GW 2036/37: 6.448 GW 2037/38: 6.475 GW 2038/39: 6.504 GW 2039/40: 6.535 GW 2040/41: 6.569 GW 2041/42: 6.606 GW 2042/43: 6.645 GW 2043/44: 6.687 GW 2044/45: 6.730 GW 2045/46: 6.776 GW 2046/47: 6.825 GW 2047/48: 6.875 GW 2048/49: 6.928 GW 2049/50: 6.984 GW Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 0.795 GW 2025/26: 0.946 GW 2026/27: 1.091 GW 2027/28: 1.482 GW 2028/29: 1.657 GW 2029/30: 1.759 GW 2030/31: 1.765 GW 2031/32: 2.701 GW 2032/33: 3.609 GW 2033/34: 4.528 GW 2034/35: 5.460 GW 2035/36: 6.366 GW 2036/37: 6.367 GW 2037/38: 6.368 GW 2038/39: 6.370 GW 2039/40: 6.371 GW 2040/41: 6.373 GW 2041/42: 6.375 GW 2042/43: 6.377 GW 2043/44: 6.379 GW 2044/45: 6.381 GW 2045/46: 6.383 GW 2046/47: 6.385 GW 2047/48: 6.388 GW 2048/49: 6.390 GW 2049/50: 6.393 GW Holistic Transition 2024/25: 0.795 GW 2025/26: 0.948 GW 2026/27: 1.094 GW 2027/28: 1.485 GW 2028/29: 1.646 GW 2029/30: 1.769 GW 2030/31: 1.786 GW 2031/32: 2.710 GW 2032/33: 3.637 GW 2033/34: 4.566 GW 2034/35: 5.497 GW 2035/36: 6.430 GW 2036/37: 6.458 GW 2037/38: 6.491 GW 2038/39: 6.525 GW 2039/40: 6.564 GW 2040/41: 6.604 GW 2041/42: 6.649 GW 2042/43: 6.696 GW 2043/44: 6.747 GW 2044/45: 6.800 GW 2045/46: 6.856 GW 2046/47: 6.914 GW 2047/48: 6.976 GW 2048/49: 7.040 GW 2049/50: 7.108 GW
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Figure 5

Renewable generation installed (GW)

Figure 5: Renewable generation installed (GW)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement5.70911.33512.910
Hydrogen Evolution5.70910.57610.900
Holistic Transition5.70911.29112.812
0 5 10 Renewable generation (GW) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 3.609 GW 2025/26: 3.746 GW 2026/27: 4.016 GW 2027/28: 4.587 GW 2028/29: 4.920 GW 2029/30: 5.426 GW 2030/31: 5.709 GW 2031/32: 6.292 GW 2032/33: 7.321 GW 2033/34: 8.310 GW 2034/35: 9.323 GW 2035/36: 10.358 GW 2036/37: 10.672 GW 2037/38: 10.828 GW 2038/39: 10.981 GW 2039/40: 11.150 GW 2040/41: 11.335 GW 2041/42: 11.515 GW 2042/43: 11.702 GW 2043/44: 11.884 GW 2044/45: 12.070 GW 2045/46: 12.253 GW 2046/47: 12.449 GW 2047/48: 12.604 GW 2048/49: 12.759 GW 2049/50: 12.910 GW Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 3.609 GW 2025/26: 3.746 GW 2026/27: 4.016 GW 2027/28: 4.587 GW 2028/29: 4.920 GW 2029/30: 5.426 GW 2030/31: 5.709 GW 2031/32: 6.292 GW 2032/33: 7.321 GW 2033/34: 8.310 GW 2034/35: 9.323 GW 2035/36: 10.274 GW 2036/37: 10.448 GW 2037/38: 10.477 GW 2038/39: 10.509 GW 2039/40: 10.541 GW 2040/41: 10.576 GW 2041/42: 10.608 GW 2042/43: 10.642 GW 2043/44: 10.676 GW 2044/45: 10.712 GW 2045/46: 10.749 GW 2046/47: 10.786 GW 2047/48: 10.822 GW 2048/49: 10.861 GW 2049/50: 10.900 GW Holistic Transition 2024/25: 3.609 GW 2025/26: 3.746 GW 2026/27: 4.016 GW 2027/28: 4.587 GW 2028/29: 4.920 GW 2029/30: 5.426 GW 2030/31: 5.709 GW 2031/32: 6.292 GW 2032/33: 7.321 GW 2033/34: 8.310 GW 2034/35: 9.323 GW 2035/36: 10.355 GW 2036/37: 10.668 GW 2037/38: 10.811 GW 2038/39: 10.968 GW 2039/40: 11.119 GW 2040/41: 11.291 GW 2041/42: 11.460 GW 2042/43: 11.640 GW 2043/44: 11.811 GW 2044/45: 11.990 GW 2045/46: 12.163 GW 2046/47: 12.351 GW 2047/48: 12.503 GW 2048/49: 12.660 GW 2049/50: 12.812 GW
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Figure 6

Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)

Figure 6: Electric bus and HGV uptake forecast (#)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement200127398183978
Hydrogen Evolution200127140682416
Holistic Transition200127398183978
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Number 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 703 2025/26: 2138 2026/27: 4167 2027/28: 6905 2028/29: 10446 2029/30: 14822 2030/31: 20012 2031/32: 25839 2032/33: 32112 2033/34: 38635 2034/35: 45132 2035/36: 51201 2036/37: 56894 2037/38: 62090 2038/39: 66688 2039/40: 70659 2040/41: 73981 2041/42: 76672 2042/43: 78792 2043/44: 80421 2044/45: 81622 2045/46: 82493 2046/47: 83101 2047/48: 83511 2048/49: 83795 2049/50: 83978 Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 703 2025/26: 2138 2026/27: 4167 2027/28: 6905 2028/29: 10446 2029/30: 14822 2030/31: 20012 2031/32: 25839 2032/33: 32112 2033/34: 38635 2034/35: 45132 2035/36: 50216 2036/37: 55171 2037/38: 59875 2038/39: 64191 2039/40: 68050 2040/41: 71406 2041/42: 74230 2042/43: 76540 2043/44: 78357 2044/45: 79725 2045/46: 80718 2046/47: 81417 2047/48: 81891 2048/49: 82211 2049/50: 82416 Holistic Transition 2024/25: 703 2025/26: 2138 2026/27: 4167 2027/28: 6905 2028/29: 10446 2029/30: 14822 2030/31: 20012 2031/32: 25839 2032/33: 32112 2033/34: 38635 2034/35: 45132 2035/36: 51201 2036/37: 56894 2037/38: 62090 2038/39: 66688 2039/40: 70659 2040/41: 73981 2041/42: 76672 2042/43: 78792 2043/44: 80421 2044/45: 81622 2045/46: 82493 2046/47: 83101 2047/48: 83511 2048/49: 83795 2049/50: 83978
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Section 02

Network demand

6 graphs · downloadable as SVG and CSV

Figure 7

Annual peak demand (with ToUT) (GW)

Figure 7: Annual peak demand (with ToUT) (GW)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement7.6810.9712.45
Hydrogen Evolution7.8510.6511.82
Holistic Transition7.6811.1412.47
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Annual peak demand (GW) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 6.23 GW 2025/26: 6.25 GW 2026/27: 6.58 GW 2027/28: 6.68 GW 2028/29: 7.39 GW 2029/30: 7.51 GW 2030/31: 7.68 GW 2031/32: 7.93 GW 2032/33: 8.21 GW 2033/34: 8.50 GW 2034/35: 8.81 GW 2035/36: 9.12 GW 2036/37: 9.47 GW 2037/38: 9.83 GW 2038/39: 10.21 GW 2039/40: 10.59 GW 2040/41: 10.97 GW 2041/42: 11.18 GW 2042/43: 11.39 GW 2043/44: 11.59 GW 2044/45: 11.77 GW 2045/46: 11.93 GW 2046/47: 12.06 GW 2047/48: 12.17 GW 2048/49: 12.29 GW 2049/50: 12.45 GW Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 6.25 GW 2025/26: 6.30 GW 2026/27: 6.65 GW 2027/28: 6.76 GW 2028/29: 7.50 GW 2029/30: 7.65 GW 2030/31: 7.85 GW 2031/32: 8.12 GW 2032/33: 8.42 GW 2033/34: 8.74 GW 2034/35: 9.06 GW 2035/36: 9.36 GW 2036/37: 9.65 GW 2037/38: 9.91 GW 2038/39: 10.17 GW 2039/40: 10.42 GW 2040/41: 10.65 GW 2041/42: 10.83 GW 2042/43: 10.99 GW 2043/44: 11.16 GW 2044/45: 11.31 GW 2045/46: 11.45 GW 2046/47: 11.56 GW 2047/48: 11.66 GW 2048/49: 11.75 GW 2049/50: 11.82 GW Holistic Transition 2024/25: 6.23 GW 2025/26: 6.25 GW 2026/27: 6.58 GW 2027/28: 6.67 GW 2028/29: 7.38 GW 2029/30: 7.50 GW 2030/31: 7.68 GW 2031/32: 7.93 GW 2032/33: 8.20 GW 2033/34: 8.50 GW 2034/35: 8.81 GW 2035/36: 9.14 GW 2036/37: 9.53 GW 2037/38: 9.93 GW 2038/39: 10.34 GW 2039/40: 10.75 GW 2040/41: 11.14 GW 2041/42: 11.35 GW 2042/43: 11.55 GW 2043/44: 11.74 GW 2044/45: 11.91 GW 2045/46: 12.07 GW 2046/47: 12.20 GW 2047/48: 12.30 GW 2048/49: 12.39 GW 2049/50: 12.47 GW
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Figure 8

Annual network energy consumption (TWh)

Figure 8: Annual network energy consumption (TWh)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electric Engagement39.056.662.6
Hydrogen Evolution39.555.661.6
Holistic Transition39.057.362.1
0 20 40 60 Energy consumption (TWh) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electric Engagement 2024/25: 33.4 TWh 2025/26: 33.7 TWh 2026/27: 34.8 TWh 2027/28: 35.6 TWh 2028/29: 36.7 TWh 2029/30: 37.7 TWh 2030/31: 39.0 TWh 2031/32: 40.6 TWh 2032/33: 42.2 TWh 2033/34: 43.9 TWh 2034/35: 45.6 TWh 2035/36: 47.4 TWh 2036/37: 49.3 TWh 2037/38: 51.2 TWh 2038/39: 53.0 TWh 2039/40: 54.8 TWh 2040/41: 56.6 TWh 2041/42: 57.5 TWh 2042/43: 58.4 TWh 2043/44: 59.3 TWh 2044/45: 60.0 TWh 2045/46: 60.7 TWh 2046/47: 61.2 TWh 2047/48: 61.6 TWh 2048/49: 62.0 TWh 2049/50: 62.6 TWh Hydrogen Evolution 2024/25: 33.4 TWh 2025/26: 33.8 TWh 2026/27: 35.0 TWh 2027/28: 35.8 TWh 2028/29: 37.0 TWh 2029/30: 38.1 TWh 2030/31: 39.5 TWh 2031/32: 41.1 TWh 2032/33: 42.9 TWh 2033/34: 44.6 TWh 2034/35: 46.5 TWh 2035/36: 48.2 TWh 2036/37: 50.0 TWh 2037/38: 51.5 TWh 2038/39: 53.0 TWh 2039/40: 54.4 TWh 2040/41: 55.6 TWh 2041/42: 56.6 TWh 2042/43: 57.4 TWh 2043/44: 58.3 TWh 2044/45: 59.1 TWh 2045/46: 59.8 TWh 2046/47: 60.3 TWh 2047/48: 60.8 TWh 2048/49: 61.2 TWh 2049/50: 61.6 TWh Holistic Transition 2024/25: 33.4 TWh 2025/26: 33.7 TWh 2026/27: 34.8 TWh 2027/28: 35.6 TWh 2028/29: 36.7 TWh 2029/30: 37.7 TWh 2030/31: 39.0 TWh 2031/32: 40.5 TWh 2032/33: 42.2 TWh 2033/34: 43.9 TWh 2034/35: 45.6 TWh 2035/36: 47.4 TWh 2036/37: 49.6 TWh 2037/38: 51.6 TWh 2038/39: 53.6 TWh 2039/40: 55.4 TWh 2040/41: 57.3 TWh 2041/42: 58.1 TWh 2042/43: 58.9 TWh 2043/44: 59.6 TWh 2044/45: 60.2 TWh 2045/46: 60.8 TWh 2046/47: 61.2 TWh 2047/48: 61.5 TWh 2048/49: 61.8 TWh 2049/50: 62.1 TWh
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Figure 9

Network peak demand breakdown - Holistic Transition (MW)

Figure 9: Network peak demand breakdown - Holistic Transition (MW)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Domestic1903.51793.31669.2
I & C4665.54530.64466.4
Heat pumps - domestic30925343914
Heat pumps - I & C101282371
EV617.71691.41700.1
Electric HGVs73.5283.1312.6
Electric Buses10.128.131.6
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Annual gross peak demand (MW) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Domestic 2024/25: 2103.3 MW 2025/26: 2061.2 MW 2026/27: 2022.8 MW 2027/28: 1992.3 MW 2028/29: 1956.5 MW 2029/30: 1927.3 MW 2030/31: 1903.5 MW 2031/32: 1883.7 MW 2032/33: 1862.0 MW 2033/34: 1835.7 MW 2034/35: 1817.9 MW 2035/36: 1817.4 MW 2036/37: 1809.3 MW 2037/38: 1799.8 MW 2038/39: 1795.0 MW 2039/40: 1790.9 MW 2040/41: 1793.3 MW 2041/42: 1791.2 MW 2042/43: 1780.2 MW 2043/44: 1768.1 MW 2044/45: 1754.1 MW 2045/46: 1739.3 MW 2046/47: 1723.6 MW 2047/48: 1707.5 MW 2048/49: 1689.2 MW 2049/50: 1669.2 MW I & C 2024/25: 3952.4 MW 2025/26: 3914.8 MW 2026/27: 4165.5 MW 2027/28: 4134.5 MW 2028/29: 4710.2 MW 2029/30: 4685.6 MW 2030/31: 4665.5 MW 2031/32: 4646.7 MW 2032/33: 4629.3 MW 2033/34: 4613.2 MW 2034/35: 4598.1 MW 2035/36: 4584.7 MW 2036/37: 4572.2 MW 2037/38: 4560.7 MW 2038/39: 4549.9 MW 2039/40: 4539.9 MW 2040/41: 4530.6 MW 2041/42: 4522.0 MW 2042/43: 4513.9 MW 2043/44: 4506.2 MW 2044/45: 4499.0 MW 2045/46: 4492.1 MW 2046/47: 4485.5 MW 2047/48: 4479.0 MW 2048/49: 4472.7 MW 2049/50: 4466.4 MW Heat pumps - domestic 2024/25: 35 MW 2025/26: 73 MW 2026/27: 104 MW 2027/28: 151 MW 2028/29: 201 MW 2029/30: 245 MW 2030/31: 309 MW 2031/32: 441 MW 2032/33: 598 MW 2033/34: 779 MW 2034/35: 965 MW 2035/36: 1152 MW 2036/37: 1361 MW 2037/38: 1640 MW 2038/39: 1934 MW 2039/40: 2235 MW 2040/41: 2534 MW 2041/42: 2719 MW 2042/43: 2918 MW 2043/44: 3109 MW 2044/45: 3287 MW 2045/46: 3450 MW 2046/47: 3590 MW 2047/48: 3712 MW 2048/49: 3815 MW 2049/50: 3914 MW Heat pumps - I & C 2024/25: 58 MW 2025/26: 60 MW 2026/27: 62 MW 2027/28: 69 MW 2028/29: 76 MW 2029/30: 85 MW 2030/31: 101 MW 2031/32: 114 MW 2032/33: 131 MW 2033/34: 149 MW 2034/35: 169 MW 2035/36: 190 MW 2036/37: 210 MW 2037/38: 229 MW 2038/39: 248 MW 2039/40: 265 MW 2040/41: 282 MW 2041/42: 296 MW 2042/43: 310 MW 2043/44: 320 MW 2044/45: 330 MW 2045/46: 339 MW 2046/47: 350 MW 2047/48: 358 MW 2048/49: 365 MW 2049/50: 371 MW EV 2024/25: 77.4 MW 2025/26: 130.9 MW 2026/27: 210.1 MW 2027/28: 300.8 MW 2028/29: 396.9 MW 2029/30: 498.5 MW 2030/31: 617.7 MW 2031/32: 733.9 MW 2032/33: 848.9 MW 2033/34: 960.7 MW 2034/35: 1067.8 MW 2035/36: 1181.2 MW 2036/37: 1339.7 MW 2037/38: 1441.3 MW 2038/39: 1533.2 MW 2039/40: 1616.6 MW 2040/41: 1691.4 MW 2041/42: 1697.0 MW 2042/43: 1700.9 MW 2043/44: 1703.4 MW 2044/45: 1705.6 MW 2045/46: 1705.9 MW 2046/47: 1704.7 MW 2047/48: 1697.6 MW 2048/49: 1699.8 MW 2049/50: 1700.1 MW Electric HGVs 2024/25: 1.9 MW 2025/26: 6.3 MW 2026/27: 13.2 MW 2027/28: 23.1 MW 2028/29: 36.4 MW 2029/30: 53.2 MW 2030/31: 73.5 MW 2031/32: 96.6 MW 2032/33: 121.6 MW 2033/34: 146.9 MW 2034/35: 172.5 MW 2035/36: 196.7 MW 2036/37: 218.4 MW 2037/38: 238.4 MW 2038/39: 256.5 MW 2039/40: 271.3 MW 2040/41: 283.1 MW 2041/42: 292.3 MW 2042/43: 299.5 MW 2043/44: 304.8 MW 2044/45: 308.2 MW 2045/46: 310.5 MW 2046/47: 311.9 MW 2047/48: 312.5 MW 2048/49: 312.7 MW 2049/50: 312.6 MW Electric Buses 2024/25: 0.6 MW 2025/26: 1.8 MW 2026/27: 3.1 MW 2027/28: 4.6 MW 2028/29: 6.2 MW 2029/30: 8.0 MW 2030/31: 10.1 MW 2031/32: 12.2 MW 2032/33: 14.4 MW 2033/34: 16.5 MW 2034/35: 18.7 MW 2035/36: 20.7 MW 2036/37: 22.4 MW 2037/38: 24.1 MW 2038/39: 25.7 MW 2039/40: 27.0 MW 2040/41: 28.1 MW 2041/42: 29.0 MW 2042/43: 29.8 MW 2043/44: 30.4 MW 2044/45: 30.9 MW 2045/46: 31.2 MW 2046/47: 31.4 MW 2047/48: 31.5 MW 2048/49: 31.6 MW 2049/50: 31.6 MW
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Figure 10

Network energy consumption breakdown - Holistic Transition (TWh)

Figure 10: Network energy consumption breakdown - Holistic Transition (TWh)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Domestic10.0039.4568.801
I & C21.00620.30319.963
Heat pumps, domestic and District Heating1.1068.90313.754
Air conditioning, domestic0.0490.0780.123
Heat pumps, I&C0.3561.0081.33
Air conditioning, I&C0.8270.9221.013
EV4.4212.1212.161
Electric HGVs0.9583.694.074
Electric Buses0.2750.7690.865
0 5 10 15 20 Network energy consumption (TWh) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Domestic 2024/25: 10.789 TWh 2025/26: 10.586 TWh 2026/27: 10.434 TWh 2027/28: 10.298 TWh 2028/29: 10.181 TWh 2029/30: 10.085 TWh 2030/31: 10.003 TWh 2031/32: 9.933 TWh 2032/33: 9.818 TWh 2033/34: 9.679 TWh 2034/35: 9.585 TWh 2035/36: 9.583 TWh 2036/37: 9.54 TWh 2037/38: 9.49 TWh 2038/39: 9.465 TWh 2039/40: 9.444 TWh 2040/41: 9.456 TWh 2041/42: 9.445 TWh 2042/43: 9.388 TWh 2043/44: 9.324 TWh 2044/45: 9.25 TWh 2045/46: 9.171 TWh 2046/47: 9.088 TWh 2047/48: 9.003 TWh 2048/49: 8.907 TWh 2049/50: 8.801 TWh I & C 2024/25: 20.891 TWh 2025/26: 20.75 TWh 2026/27: 21.202 TWh 2027/28: 21.077 TWh 2028/29: 21.217 TWh 2029/30: 21.108 TWh 2030/31: 21.006 TWh 2031/32: 20.91 TWh 2032/33: 20.822 TWh 2033/34: 20.739 TWh 2034/35: 20.662 TWh 2035/36: 20.59 TWh 2036/37: 20.524 TWh 2037/38: 20.463 TWh 2038/39: 20.405 TWh 2039/40: 20.352 TWh 2040/41: 20.303 TWh 2041/42: 20.257 TWh 2042/43: 20.214 TWh 2043/44: 20.174 TWh 2044/45: 20.135 TWh 2045/46: 20.099 TWh 2046/47: 20.064 TWh 2047/48: 20.029 TWh 2048/49: 19.996 TWh 2049/50: 19.963 TWh Heat pumps, domestic and District Heating 2024/25: 0.131 TWh 2025/26: 0.271 TWh 2026/27: 0.378 TWh 2027/28: 0.544 TWh 2028/29: 0.722 TWh 2029/30: 0.878 TWh 2030/31: 1.106 TWh 2031/32: 1.572 TWh 2032/33: 2.12 TWh 2033/34: 2.753 TWh 2034/35: 3.408 TWh 2035/36: 4.065 TWh 2036/37: 4.799 TWh 2037/38: 5.777 TWh 2038/39: 6.806 TWh 2039/40: 7.857 TWh 2040/41: 8.903 TWh 2041/42: 9.555 TWh 2042/43: 10.256 TWh 2043/44: 10.926 TWh 2044/45: 11.552 TWh 2045/46: 12.123 TWh 2046/47: 12.615 TWh 2047/48: 13.044 TWh 2048/49: 13.406 TWh 2049/50: 13.754 TWh Air conditioning, domestic 2024/25: 0.039 TWh 2025/26: 0.039 TWh 2026/27: 0.041 TWh 2027/28: 0.043 TWh 2028/29: 0.045 TWh 2029/30: 0.047 TWh 2030/31: 0.049 TWh 2031/32: 0.051 TWh 2032/33: 0.054 TWh 2033/34: 0.056 TWh 2034/35: 0.059 TWh 2035/36: 0.062 TWh 2036/37: 0.064 TWh 2037/38: 0.067 TWh 2038/39: 0.071 TWh 2039/40: 0.074 TWh 2040/41: 0.078 TWh 2041/42: 0.082 TWh 2042/43: 0.086 TWh 2043/44: 0.091 TWh 2044/45: 0.095 TWh 2045/46: 0.1 TWh 2046/47: 0.106 TWh 2047/48: 0.111 TWh 2048/49: 0.117 TWh 2049/50: 0.123 TWh Heat pumps, I&C 2024/25: 0.202 TWh 2025/26: 0.213 TWh 2026/27: 0.219 TWh 2027/28: 0.243 TWh 2028/29: 0.267 TWh 2029/30: 0.301 TWh 2030/31: 0.356 TWh 2031/32: 0.402 TWh 2032/33: 0.463 TWh 2033/34: 0.531 TWh 2034/35: 0.601 TWh 2035/36: 0.678 TWh 2036/37: 0.75 TWh 2037/38: 0.818 TWh 2038/39: 0.885 TWh 2039/40: 0.948 TWh 2040/41: 1.008 TWh 2041/42: 1.059 TWh 2042/43: 1.109 TWh 2043/44: 1.147 TWh 2044/45: 1.183 TWh 2045/46: 1.217 TWh 2046/47: 1.254 TWh 2047/48: 1.282 TWh 2048/49: 1.307 TWh 2049/50: 1.33 TWh Air conditioning, I&C 2024/25: 0.775 TWh 2025/26: 0.784 TWh 2026/27: 0.793 TWh 2027/28: 0.801 TWh 2028/29: 0.81 TWh 2029/30: 0.818 TWh 2030/31: 0.827 TWh 2031/32: 0.836 TWh 2032/33: 0.844 TWh 2033/34: 0.853 TWh 2034/35: 0.862 TWh 2035/36: 0.872 TWh 2036/37: 0.882 TWh 2037/38: 0.892 TWh 2038/39: 0.902 TWh 2039/40: 0.912 TWh 2040/41: 0.922 TWh 2041/42: 0.932 TWh 2042/43: 0.942 TWh 2043/44: 0.952 TWh 2044/45: 0.962 TWh 2045/46: 0.973 TWh 2046/47: 0.983 TWh 2047/48: 0.993 TWh 2048/49: 1.003 TWh 2049/50: 1.013 TWh EV 2024/25: 0.554 TWh 2025/26: 0.939 TWh 2026/27: 1.505 TWh 2027/28: 2.154 TWh 2028/29: 2.841 TWh 2029/30: 3.568 TWh 2030/31: 4.42 TWh 2031/32: 5.251 TWh 2032/33: 6.074 TWh 2033/34: 6.873 TWh 2034/35: 7.639 TWh 2035/36: 8.45 TWh 2036/37: 9.6 TWh 2037/38: 10.328 TWh 2038/39: 10.986 TWh 2039/40: 11.584 TWh 2040/41: 12.12 TWh 2041/42: 12.155 TWh 2042/43: 12.178 TWh 2043/44: 12.193 TWh 2044/45: 12.205 TWh 2045/46: 12.204 TWh 2046/47: 12.194 TWh 2047/48: 12.143 TWh 2048/49: 12.158 TWh 2049/50: 12.161 TWh Electric HGVs 2024/25: 0.025 TWh 2025/26: 0.083 TWh 2026/27: 0.172 TWh 2027/28: 0.302 TWh 2028/29: 0.475 TWh 2029/30: 0.694 TWh 2030/31: 0.958 TWh 2031/32: 1.259 TWh 2032/33: 1.585 TWh 2033/34: 1.915 TWh 2034/35: 2.249 TWh 2035/36: 2.564 TWh 2036/37: 2.847 TWh 2037/38: 3.108 TWh 2038/39: 3.343 TWh 2039/40: 3.537 TWh 2040/41: 3.69 TWh 2041/42: 3.811 TWh 2042/43: 3.904 TWh 2043/44: 3.973 TWh 2044/45: 4.018 TWh 2045/46: 4.048 TWh 2046/47: 4.066 TWh 2047/48: 4.073 TWh 2048/49: 4.076 TWh 2049/50: 4.074 TWh Electric Buses 2024/25: 0.018 TWh 2025/26: 0.05 TWh 2026/27: 0.085 TWh 2027/28: 0.125 TWh 2028/29: 0.171 TWh 2029/30: 0.22 TWh 2030/31: 0.275 TWh 2031/32: 0.334 TWh 2032/33: 0.394 TWh 2033/34: 0.452 TWh 2034/35: 0.511 TWh 2035/36: 0.566 TWh 2036/37: 0.614 TWh 2037/38: 0.66 TWh 2038/39: 0.703 TWh 2039/40: 0.739 TWh 2040/41: 0.769 TWh 2041/42: 0.795 TWh 2042/43: 0.816 TWh 2043/44: 0.833 TWh 2044/45: 0.845 TWh 2045/46: 0.854 TWh 2046/47: 0.86 TWh 2047/48: 0.863 TWh 2048/49: 0.865 TWh 2049/50: 0.865 TWh
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Figure 11

Additional industrial peak demand breakdown - Holistic Transition (MW)

Figure 11: Additional industrial peak demand breakdown - Holistic Transition (MW)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electrolysers4288551867
Large industry Fuel Switching94276771
0 500 1,000 1,500 Peak demand (MW) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electrolysers 2024/25: 0 MW 2025/26: 14 MW 2026/27: 22 MW 2027/28: 84 MW 2028/29: 284 MW 2029/30: 357 MW 2030/31: 428 MW 2031/32: 544 MW 2032/33: 552 MW 2033/34: 620 MW 2034/35: 705 MW 2035/36: 782 MW 2036/37: 823 MW 2037/38: 825 MW 2038/39: 825 MW 2039/40: 810 MW 2040/41: 855 MW 2041/42: 988 MW 2042/43: 1092 MW 2043/44: 1251 MW 2044/45: 1382 MW 2045/46: 1484 MW 2046/47: 1701 MW 2047/48: 1785 MW 2048/49: 1827 MW 2049/50: 1867 MW Large industry Fuel Switching 2024/25: 28 MW 2025/26: 35 MW 2026/27: 47 MW 2027/28: 59 MW 2028/29: 71 MW 2029/30: 82 MW 2030/31: 94 MW 2031/32: 110 MW 2032/33: 125 MW 2033/34: 141 MW 2034/35: 156 MW 2035/36: 171 MW 2036/37: 192 MW 2037/38: 213 MW 2038/39: 234 MW 2039/40: 255 MW 2040/41: 276 MW 2041/42: 318 MW 2042/43: 361 MW 2043/44: 404 MW 2044/45: 447 MW 2045/46: 490 MW 2046/47: 560 MW 2047/48: 631 MW 2048/49: 701 MW 2049/50: 771 MW
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Figure 12

Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown - Holistic Transition (TWh)

Figure 12: Additional industrial energy consumption breakdown - Holistic Transition (TWh)
Scenario2030/312040/412049/50
Electrolysers3.7467.48916.353
Large industry Fuel Switching0.8252.4156.757
0 5 10 15 Energy consumption (TWh) 2030/31 2040/41 2049/50 Electrolysers 2024/25: 0.002 TWh 2025/26: 0.120 TWh 2026/27: 0.192 TWh 2027/28: 0.736 TWh 2028/29: 2.491 TWh 2029/30: 3.128 TWh 2030/31: 3.746 TWh 2031/32: 4.764 TWh 2032/33: 4.839 TWh 2033/34: 5.433 TWh 2034/35: 6.180 TWh 2035/36: 6.846 TWh 2036/37: 7.205 TWh 2037/38: 7.224 TWh 2038/39: 7.230 TWh 2039/40: 7.098 TWh 2040/41: 7.489 TWh 2041/42: 8.656 TWh 2042/43: 9.563 TWh 2043/44: 10.956 TWh 2044/45: 12.104 TWh 2045/46: 13.001 TWh 2046/47: 14.900 TWh 2047/48: 15.637 TWh 2048/49: 16.005 TWh 2049/50: 16.353 TWh Large industry Fuel Switching 2024/25: 0.249 TWh 2025/26: 0.311 TWh 2026/27: 0.414 TWh 2027/28: 0.516 TWh 2028/29: 0.619 TWh 2029/30: 0.722 TWh 2030/31: 0.825 TWh 2031/32: 0.960 TWh 2032/33: 1.096 TWh 2033/34: 1.231 TWh 2034/35: 1.367 TWh 2035/36: 1.502 TWh 2036/37: 1.685 TWh 2037/38: 1.867 TWh 2038/39: 2.050 TWh 2039/40: 2.232 TWh 2040/41: 2.415 TWh 2041/42: 2.790 TWh 2042/43: 3.165 TWh 2043/44: 3.539 TWh 2044/45: 3.914 TWh 2045/46: 4.289 TWh 2046/47: 4.906 TWh 2047/48: 5.523 TWh 2048/49: 6.140 TWh 2049/50: 6.757 TWh
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